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I've been thinking about Next Big Things (NBTs) ever since I read a quote from a venture capitalist stating, "The short story is there is no next big thing". In a narrow sense, he probably meant that, as far as venture capitalists go, there is no one thing that everybody is betting on and, to that extent, there is no NBT. But in the broader sense, this statement must be false. New technologies, services, and situations will arise, and inevitably one or more of them will be big (in the sense of "impacting the lives of millions and influencing how we think, live and work"). I can name three things off the top of my head - genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and quantum computing - that are definitely "next," historically speaking, and will undoubtedly be big. But, the existence or non-existence of NBTs aside, why should we care?

The response to this question has two distinct sides and depends on whether or not you plan on creating the NBT yourself or if you are going to piggy back on someone else's NBT. Frankly, most of us fall into the latter category. We care about the NBT because we want to figure out how we can take advantage of it either by investing in it or creating some complementary Next Small Thing that will become big by association. If you were a software manufacturer in the early 1990s, for example, and you realized that Windows would be the NBT, then you designed your software to run on Windows. You didn't come up with the NBT, you rode its coattails to fame and fortune.

Whether or not those of us in the second category will successfully capitalize on the work of those in the first depends on our ability to identify the true creators of NBTs. Now, there are definitely geniuses out there sweating away in garages and homemade laboratories trying to produce the NBT from scratch. However, due to their fierce independence and low-visibility, it will be hard for us to capitalize on their innovations. In fact, it is usually left up to them to seek out believers and supporters for their concepts, and, unless you have a lot of money, they probably won't seek you out. Which leaves most of us to hunt for the NBT in more obvious places and, the most obvious place is where the Big Things are.

For example, many people talk about "web services" as the NBT. The prime mover in this area is Microsoft, which last year introduced.Net, their platform for the XML based Web services. The idea here is that, using their platform, developers can create an unlimited range of applications which people can access via the web regardless of operating system or programming language. If you don't have to worry about the platform or the basic applications that people will use to access information and services, there is, technically speaking, no limit to what you might develop. Or so the thinking goes.

In this case, what makes "web services" the NBT is not innovative thinking (though it is innovative), but the Big Thing behind it: Microsoft. The lesson here is this. If you are looking for the NBT, follow the lines of "cultural gravity." There is a higher probability that a Big Thing will produce the Next Big Thing, than that a Small Thing will produce it. Why? Because just as in the physical universe, where massive objects exert force over less massive objects, in the cultural universe, large enterprises exert force over smaller enterprises by dictating market conditions, purchasing promising competitors, and pursuing diverse lines of R&D with their copious resources.

The short story is that, although there may be no one Next Big Thing, there are definitely Big Things and if you watch them, study their plans, and consider all the myriad implications, you will have a good chance of producing that Next Small Thing that works perfectly with the Next Big Thing. And who knows what NBT every NST may conceal. After all, as the folk wisdom tells us, mighty oaks from little acorns grow.

As Minister of Enlightenment for Aquent, the world's largest talent agency for creative, web and IT professionals (www.aquent.com.au), Matthew Grant, speaks and trains on technical and communication issues.

This article was first published on http://www.digitalevela.org on December 2001.

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andrew@lam-po-tangcom